Circulating supply versus fully diluted valuation
Two numbers sit side by side on every CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap page. Most people glance at the first and ignore the second. That habit costs money.
Circulating supply is simple. It is the number of tokens that exist and can be traded right now. Nothing more. Nothing less. If a token has 10 million coins in wallets that can send them, the circulating supply is 10 million. Locked tokens, team vesting contracts, and tokens yet to be minted do not count. They are not available to buy or sell today.
Fully diluted valuation (FDV) is the hypothetical market cap if every single token that will ever exist were already in circulation. You take the maximum supply or the total eventual supply and multiply it by the current price. The result is a number that assumes everything is already tradeable. It is a projection, not a reality.
The gap between these two numbers tells you a lot about what might happen next.
Consider a token with a circulating supply of 20 million coins and a maximum supply of1 billion. If the price is $1, the market cap based on circulating supply is $20 million. The FDV is $1 billion. Every token that does not yet exist is a future seller waiting to happen. Not because the project is bad. Because supply will increase over time as scheduled releases put tokens onto the market.
This is the low-float, high-FDV structure. It is common. And it creates structural sell pressure.
When a token has a small float - a tiny fraction of its eventual supply actually tradeable - the price can spike quickly on modest buying. Low supply meets demand, and the move up is fast. That looks good on a chart. But the tokens are coming. They are scheduled. Release schedules are usually public. Each release adds tokens that early investors, team members, or foundation wallets can sell. Selling does not have to be malicious. Even routine spending of operational funds adds to the circulating supply.
The math is straightforward. More tokens chasing the same demand means lower prices, all else equal. If fixed demand meets a growing float, price tends down. The rate of that decline depends on how fast releases happen relative to how many new buyers show up.
You can check either CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. Both show circulating supply and fully diluted market cap on the main page of any token entry. The fully diluted value is usually listed right below the regular market cap. Look for it. For any token you are considering sizing into, find these two numbers. Compare them. Ask yourself what happens when the locked tokens start to release.
Some projects have releases spread over years. Some have cliffs where large portions release at one date. Some have no releases at all because all tokens were minted and distributed from day one. Bitcoin is an example of the last category. Everyone mining new Bitcoin is creating supply, but there is no central lockup schedule. The inflation rate is known and constant.
You already know what maximum supply means from the earlier page on this site. You already understand inflation rate and how it dilutes holders. Now put those concepts together with FDV. A token with high inflation and a low float against a high FDV is a token where the supply picture is going to change substantially. That is not a judgment call. It is arithmetic.
A good habit: check the release schedule too. CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap both link to them when available. See what releases next month, next quarter, next year. If the float is currently 5% of maximum supply and 10% releases next month, the supply is going to triple. Price may or may not adjust instantly. But the pressure will be there.
None of this means a token is doomed or a scam. It means the market mechanics are a certain way. You need to know what you are buying into. Sizing decisions without checking FDV are decisions made blind.
Circulating supply tells you what exists now. FDV tells you what exists later. Both matter. One is fact. The other is a forecast. Treat them accordingly.
Not financial advice. catsylvestertoken.xyz publishes market data and general information about digital assets. Crypto assets are volatile and you can lose everything you put in. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold, and we make no price predictions.
Prices are sourced from third parties and may be delayed or wrong. Verify anything you intend to act on against a primary source.